Anup Chouhan's Key Ideas from Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke
Ideas, facts & insights covering these topics:
12 ideas
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1. Life is Like Poker, Not Chess
- Life has luck involved, just like poker.
- Even good decisions can have bad outcomes.
- We need to focus on how we decide, not just the results.
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111 reads
2. Result ≠ Decision Quality
- A bad result doesn't mean you made a bad choice.
- A good result can come from a poor decision (just lucky).
- Judge your thinking, not only the outcome.
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111 reads
3. Embrace Uncertainty
- We rarely know everything when making choices.
- Accept that we might be wrong.
- Use words like "probably" or "I'm 70% sure" to show confidence levels.
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96 reads
4. Think in Bets
- A "bet" means you're choosing based on the chances of being right.
- Ask yourself, "Would I bet money on this belief?"
- This helps you become more honest with yourself.
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85 reads
5. Avoid “Resulting”
- "Resulting" means judging a decision only by its result.
- Don’t say someone was smart just because things worked out.
- Look at the reasoning behind the choice.
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83 reads
6. Form a Truth-Seeking Group
- Talk with people who challenge your ideas kindly.
- Good friends help you see your blind spots.
- Avoid echo chambers where everyone agrees with you.
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7. Use “What If” Thinking
- Ask: “What could I have done differently?”
- Think through different paths the decision could have taken.
- Learn from the process, not just the final result.
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76 reads
8. Track Your Decisions
- Write down your decisions and why you made them.
- Later, compare the outcomes to your original thinking.
- This helps you improve over time.
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71 reads
9. Separate Luck from Skill
- You can’t control luck, but you can control your choices.
- Focus on improving your decision-making process.
- Don't beat yourself up over bad luck.
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64 reads
10. Keep a Long-Term View
- One bad result doesn’t define your future.
- Think about how you’ll feel about this in a year.
- Make choices that are good for the long run.
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55 reads
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CURATOR'S NOTE
Why Smart People Think Like Gamblers
“
Curious about different takes? Check out our Thinking in Bets Summary book page to explore multiple unique summaries written by Deepstash users.
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Curious about different takes? Check out our book page to explore multiple unique summaries written by Deepstash curators:
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